(Editor's note: This article was published first at Wirepoints)
For its New Year’s resolution, Illinois should look in the mirror and acknowledge what it is.
You would never know it from election results, but Illinois is a centrist, moderate state. It should be labeled as such. In fact, given how distorted political labels have recently become – with the establishment and much of the press labeling everything they don’t like as conservative or “far right” – a reasonable case can be made that Illinoisans can be called conservative, provided you focus on what Illinoisans say on the issues.
For sure, Illinois’ political leadership is part of today’s progressive left along with the policies they’ve enacted. The public, however, is not, election results notwithstanding. On nearly every issue considered important today, Illinoisans have elected leaders who don’t truly represent them. Polls and surveys prove that gap, even in Chicago, which is much further left than most of the state.
“Yesterday’s radicals have become today’s establishment.” That was the headline on a Chicago Magazine column, about the city last year, but it largely applies statewide. “This new Chicago is as close as we can get to a revolution within our democratic system,” the column said. “The protestors have the power. The grass is eating the cows. The radicals of 100 years ago, or even 10 years ago, are now the establishment.”
Illinoisans self-identify as moderate.
As an initial matter, it’s very clear Illinoisans don’t think of themselves as part of the left. They say they are centrists, which has long been the case, and recent surveys show it.
“Just 26% of Illinois voters in this last election identified as liberal, compared to 35% who identified as conservative. The big winner? Moderates at 39%,” wrote one pollster. Another pollster found 25% saying they are “very conservative and only 15% saying they are very liberal. The largest group on the center, surprisingly, identify as “somewhat conservative” at 25%.
Yes, far more Illinoisans identify as Democratic than Republican. Polls typically find self-identified Democrats leading Republicans by something around 16%, though results vary.
But that doesn’t make them leftists. Even in Chicago, in a survey of voters that were 69% Democratic and 12% Republican, just 38% considered themselves liberal.
On the issues, Illinoisans are as moderate as they perceive themselves.
More important than how Illinoisans self-identify is their position on issues, and that’s what really confirms how Illinois should be labeled. Go through the major issues today and in the last election cycle. Search yourself to see the polls and surveys reported. You won’t find support for today’s progressive left. A few are linked below but are not exhaustive. Other surveys definitely vary to some degree, but they are all directionally consistent and show that Illinoisans are centrist.
Here are just a few issues on which Illinoisans are centrist, in conflict with their government’s policy:
Immigration and sanctuary/welcoming policies. Polls say even most Chicago voters oppose Chicago’s sanctuary city policies. That’s undoubtedly true statewide given that, nationally, polls show as much as 80% oppose sanctuary city policies. Seventy-three percent want a border wall. Americans overwhelmingly view illegal immigration as an “emergency.”
Crime and punishment. Illinoisans want criminals prosecuted. They opposed the SAFE-T Act eliminating cash bail, which was passed into law. Crime was the second most important issue to voters in Illinois’ 2022 election according to most polls, behind only taxes and spending. Disapproval of Cook County State’s Attorney, notorious for lax enforcement, is high, at 54%, with just 33% approving her. Fifty-five percent of Chicagoans say punishment is too lenient versus just 15% saying too harsh. Seventy-nine percent want stronger punishment for repeat offenders. When asked to choose between spending for more police versus more social services, 48% choose police topping 40% for more social services.
Antiracism and politicized classrooms. Illinoisans reject racialism and other political indoctrination in classrooms. A clear majority of Americans likewise oppose teaching critical race theory in schools. In Illinois and everywhere, they support teaching about racism and the history of slavery, but not about systemic racism, implicit racism by whites and the like, and think the focus on race in schools has gone too far.
Climate. While no recent Illinois polls are available, Americans generally support the switch to renewable energy sources but want a mix with fossil fuels. They reject ending the use of fossil fuels and quickly adopting renewables, which is the policy Illinois is pursuing. The most popular position is an approach that emphasizes renewables – including nuclear – and fossil fuels.
Financial crisis. Over three-quarters of Illinoisans say the state is in a financial crisis, contrary to government denials.
Population loss. Sixty-two percent of Illinoisans say it’s a problem that Illinois is shrinking, contrary to government denials.
Overall budget and taxes. Illinoisans – over 70% of them – want the state budget cut, with nearly half saying the budget should be “dramatically cut.” Eighty-six percent say taxes are too high and just 13% say too low.
Biological men playing women’s sports. Not a chance. While no Illinois poll is available, Americans oppose biological men playing in women’s sports by two-to-one, according to national polls, and opposition is no doubt similar in Illinois.
Gender transition. Once again, two-thirds of Americans oppose gender affirming care for minors, likely indicating at least a majority of Illinoisans are also opposed.
Term limits and fair legislative maps. Each has long been highly popular, but there’s not a chance of any of that being considered in Springfield.
School choice. Few issues garner more support than school choice, which Illinois and Chicago government oppose. Across all lines – racial, political party, age, location and more – Illinoisans want school choice.
But here are the two big ones where the story is different.
Abortion. About 52% of likely Illinois voters polled say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, with 36% saying it should be illegal, and 12% unsure. That issue has undoubtedly been central to victory by progressives in Illinois elections.
Trump: Donald Trump has been particularly unpopular in Illinois, losing the state in his last two elections by margins of 17% and 16% in 2020 and 2016.
Those two issues have no doubt helped progressive Illinois candidates enormously.
Importantly, however, only 24% of Illinois voters say abortion should be legal in all cases. Illinoisans oppose public funding for abortions and favor parental notification, putting them at odds with Illinois law policy on those matters. Also notable, is the case made in a New York Times column last month that the secret to Trump’s success is that he’s a centrist, albeit chaotic in execution and bombastic in tone.
Don’t election results provide the ultimate proof that Illinois is far left?
Elections are the best polls, right? And progressive leftists have run the table in Illinois elections lately, right?
Not so fast. For many reasons, today’s progressives punch far above their weight in Illinois elections.
We will document those reasons in a later column.
For now, however, here’s the short answer: The far left has a superb organization and a vastly superior “ground game” of party workers turning out their vote. Social media companies, conspiring with the federal government, massively distorted the news and censored stories embarrassing to the left. Illinois election maps are the most rigged in the nation to favor progressives. Excessive public union power provides inordinate cash and manpower to the left. Schools from K-12 through college teach the left’s doctrine. Most Illinois media is biased, rarely challenging anything from the Pritzker Administration. Abortion and Trump have been deal-killer issues for many voters. And Republicans, simply haven’t put up good candidates.
Conclusion:
Gov. JB Pritzker may be right about Illinois leadership and its policies when he said “Illinois is the most progressive state in the nation and damn proud of it.”
The public, however, doesn’t agree.