(Editor's note: This article was published first at Wirepoints)
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) last week published a working paper that is the most thorough review we’ve seen so far relating state government COVID policy to actual results. In addition to mortality, it considered effects on the economy and education in its rankings.
Illinois is just about smack average on mortality. It ranks 24th among the states on COVID deaths per capita, adjusted for age and healthcare differences among states.
But it paid a high cost to achieve that mediocrity, ranking from 43rd to 47th on various economic indicators and 43rd on keeping schools open.
That earned it a combined ranking of 46th and an ‘F’ grade. Only California, New Mexico, New York, the District of Columbia and New Jersey scored worse. States with the top scores that earned an ‘A’ were Utah, Nebraska, Vermont, Montana, South Dakota, Florida, New Hampshire, Maine and Arkansas, in that order.
Another way to think about the study is to consider it as a look at whether strict COVID policies that damaged state economies and kept students out of school achieved any benefit in lower mortality. They didn’t, the study implies.
The summary chart showing the component rankings for each state is below. The authors are University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan and Stephen Moore and Phil Kerpen of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity.