On March 20, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed an executive order requiring residents to stay at home in response to COVID-19. With sparse and inconsistent data to go on, the state acted in an abundance of caution. And facing fear and uncertainty, the general public accepted shutdown orders that have resulted in an economic collapse.
Today, the situation is far different. We now have far more data about the crisis and yet the state’s overall shutdown strategy hasn’t materially changed.
For one, the data tells us who’s most at risk from COVID-19, and it's not the general public. It’s overwhelmingly those with preexisting conditions, especially the elderly. They’re the ones that need to be far better protected, and if necessary, quarantined.
We’ve also learned that Illinois had more than enough health care resources to meet our peak needs. Overall beds, ICU beds and ventilators are all in excess capacity.
And that means the general public should phase back into work immediately, while there’s still work to be had. The economic data shows how quickly the current lockdown is killing jobs and livelihoods. Economic recession and depressions cause deaths of their own.
Gov. Pritzker has seemingly ignored all the above. In fact, he recently extended Illinois’ shutdown by another month – through May 30.
Here are seven common sense facts Illinoisans should know about the state’s COVID-19 situation:
1. It’s those with preexisting conditions, especially the elderly, that are most at risk.
Illinois’ death data for COVID-19 shows the elderly are most in danger. Nearly 1,950 Illinoisans have died of the virus as of April 26th. Of those victims, 85 percent of them were age 60 or older.
The group most in danger from the virus, however, is even more narrow than that. The overwhelming majority of people who have been hospitalized or have died due to COVID-19 had other underlying conditions, including hypertension, diabetes and coronary disease – known as comorbidities.
Unfortunately, Illinois doesn’t release its preexisting condition or comorbidity numbers, so we look at other states and national data for estimates. A study published in a CDC report, for example, finds “that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions – about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.”
The state of New York publishes its comorbidity data daily. It shows that of the 16,966 deaths in New York as of April 25th, 89 percent had at least one comorbidity.
So we know with more precision today who is at risk: those with underlying medical conditions, especially the elderly. It’s not the public at large.
2. Nearly 35 percent of COVID-19 victims were retirement home residents.
The general public is even less at risk when you consider that nearly 35 percent of Illinois’ deaths came from retirement homes. A WBEZ analysis found that 625 of the state’s 1,795 deaths as of April 24 were nursing home residents.
The percentage is even higher elsewhere in the country. Massachusetts reports that half of all deaths were elderly in long-term care facilities. And worldwide, the London School of Economics reports that 40 to 60 percent of virus deaths in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium have been linked to retirement homes.
When this crisis is finally over, we’ll look back at the failure to protect retirement homes as one of the bigger tragedies of COVID-19.
3. Younger Illinoisans make up just 6% of the state’s deaths.
Younger Illinoisans face a far lower risk than originally feared. That’s reflected in who has died so far. The deaths by age group for those Illinoisans younger than 50, as of April 26, was:
- 2 residents under the age of 20;
- 10 residents aged between the 20-29;
- 31 residents aged between 30-39; and,
- 73 residents aged between ages 40-49.
4. Large parts of Illinois are far less affected
Continuing a one-size-fits-all shutdown policy for the entire state makes little sense after spending a full month getting the curve under control.
Cook and the collar counties have the vast majority of cases and deaths, while only a few of the outbreak “hotspots” are located downstate. Some of that difference is due to simple population density. Cook County has a population of over 5.2 million people and 3,200 residents per square mile.
In contrast, downstate places like Putnam County – which has no recorded cases of COVID-19 to date – has a total population of 6,000 people and just 34 residents per square mile.
Given what we know about the risk factors covered above, the rules for relaxing the shutdown should be far different for businesses in Putnam County vs. Cook County.
To read the rest of the facts...
5. Illinois’ hospitals are far more prepared today.
6. Soon nearly a million Illinoisans will be unemployed.
7. Recessions and depressions cause deaths of their ow