EAST ST. LOUIS - As U.S. District Judge Stephen McGlynn prepares for trial on the weapon ban of Illinois, he must decide whether to trust a report estimating that 25 million Americans have owned 44 million AR-15 type rifles.
The source of the report, William English of Georgetown University, stated he aimed to provide the most comprehensive assessment of firearms in America to date.
Attorney General Kwame Raoul moved to exclude it on Sept. 9, calling it hopelessly unreliable.
McGlynn will begin a constitutional trial on Monday, Sept. 16, without a jury.
Current pleadings indicate both sides plan to produce further evidence after trial, which the parties expect to last all week.
English and survey firm Centiment conducted a national survey in 2021.
They contacted a sample of about 54,000 adults and found 16,708 gun owners, a 32% rate indicating 81 million Americans owned firearms.
They surveyed the owners and found more than five firearms per owner.
They found 31% percent used firearms to defend themselves or their property, often on more than one occasion.
They estimated owners used guns defensively in about 1.7 million incidents per year.
They found handguns were used in 66% of defensive incidents.
They found that in 82% of incidents no shot was fired.
They found 25% of incidents occurred in the owner’s home and 54% occurred outside on the property.
They found 9% of defensive uses occurred in public and 3% at work.
They found 56% of owners carried a handgun for self defense in at least some circumstances and 35% carried a handgun with some frequency.
They estimated that 21 million carried handguns in public under concealed carry regimes.
They found 35% reported instances in which they wanted to carry a handgun for self defense but local rules did not allow it.
They found 48% have owned magazines that held more than ten rounds, which the weapon ban rendered illegal for many guns.
They estimated Americans have owned 542 million magazines holding more than ten rounds.
They found 42% of owners were female and 58% male.
They found 34% ownership among whites, 28% among Hispanics, 25% among blacks, and 19% among Asians.
They estimated that Americans owned 171 million handguns, 146 million rifles, and 98 million shotguns, for a total of 415 million.
Assistant attorney general Christopher Wells filed Raoul’s exclusion motion, claiming English didn’t conduct the survey in accordance with norms of social science.
He claimed English didn’t disclose sufficient information to allow for independent review and verification.
He claimed English didn’t disclose all sources of funding.
He claimed English told participants it was a survey on outdoor recreation, “which might be a deceptive practice to lure gun owners into taking the survey.”
He claimed some survey questions were worded in a manner that suggested a negative framing of regulations on firearms and magazines.
He claimed English showed the highest rate of large capacity magazine ownership in the District of Columbia.
He claimed the district has strictly prohibited such magazines for more than a decade.
“This is not the mark of a sound methodology," he wrote.