(Editor's note: This article was published first at Wirepoints)
Illinois’ leaders can deny the state’s population problems all they want, but a collapse in the state’s number of congressional seats is proof enough of the state’s population woes.
Illinois’ congressional representation has been on a steady decline for decades. Since 1930, Illinois has lost 10 seats in the House of Representatives, falling to 17 from 27. The Brennan Center calculates the state will lose another two seats by 2030 if current trends continue.
Illinois’ influence in D.C. has waned significantly. That’s bad news for the state’s progressive leaders who want to spread Illinois’ policies nationwide. But it’s good news for others across the country who oppose Illinois’ blue-state model.
Most of the losses in Illinois’ congressional seats over the decades have been due to the rest of the country growing more quickly than Illinois has – a relative loss in people for the state (see appendix).
But more recently, Illinois’ population has fallen. In the last decennial count done by the U.S. Census in 2020, Illinois was just one of three states in the entire country to shrink.
Since that decennial, Illinois has lost population three years in a row, totaling over 240,000 in losses, according to U.S. Census estimates.
The Brennan Center says that: “New population estimates released this week [Dec. 2023] by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that the shifts in political power after the 2030 census could be among the most profound in the nation’s history.”
The center used those numbers to predict Illinois will lose another two seats in 2030. Michigan loses one, while the rest of Illinois’ neighbors hold steady in representation.
Longer-term losses
Some will want to make Illinois’ longer-term losses a Rust Belt issue, but a look going back to 1980 shows that most of Illinois’ losses, along with Michigan’s, are far larger than those of neighboring states. Illinois and Michigan have both lost five seats and Iowa two. Every other state only lost one seat over the period.
Nationally, Illinois ranks as one of the nation’s big losers over that 40-year period – tied with Michigan for 4th-most. Only Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York lost more.
On the flip side, Texas and Florida have been the big winners of political influence, growing by 11 seats and 9 seats, respectively. California is next, gaining 7 seats, but it should be noted that expansion occurred almost entirely between 1980 and 1990. Since then, the Golden State has stagnated and even lost a seat in 2020.
Illinois’ population-loss deniers need to take one message from the above: If you’re not growing, you’re shrinking.
And that shrinking comes with a loss of political influence.
Appendix
