Wirepoints has highlighted for years how Illinois’ failed public policies are driving residents out of the state. All the evidence, from the U.S. Census Bureau to the IRS to United Van Lines to U-Haul to Allied Van Lines, shows Illinois losing far more residents to other states than it gains. We’ve also shown how Illinois births and legal international migration into Illinois have dropped steadily. Illinois consistently ranks at the bottom of most population/migration statistics.
Now, in the latest attempt by Illinois’ political class to dismiss all the above evidence and claim Illinois is growing, the Illinois Economic Policy Institute (IEPI) has released a new study on migration over the 2010-2020 period. From their press release:
Illinois is NOT suffering the mass exodus that some have claimed. To the contrary… Illinois’ population has been stable over the last decade — driven by growth in the Chicago metropolitan area—with the state as a whole becoming less rural, more educated, more foreign-born, more Hispanic, and higher-paid. Importantly, a decade of migration trends also reveals that substantially more Illinois workers are contributing to the state’s tax base and fewer are reliant on government assistance programs.
In other words, Illinois is doing just fine, they say.
But the institute’s optimistic assessment is wrong. The fact is Illinois was one of just three states in the country to shrink from 2010-2020 and the state’s population losses accelerated sharply in both 2021 and 2022. More importantly, IRS state-to-state migration data shows that Illinois is a net loser to other states in every income and age group. Young and old, rich and poor, everyone is leaving Illinois. And the people that remain are increasingly dependent on government programs.
No, Illinois is not better off. In fact, it continues to lag the country in most of the economic, fiscal and demographic measures that matter most.
Below are just a few of IEPI’s claims from their report and our response to them.
IEPI Claim: Illinois is NOT suffering the mass exodus that some have claimed.
Reality: Illinois was one of just three states to shrink over the past decade, with the state’s population losses accelerating during the past two years.
The results of the 2020 Decennial Census have been disputed by Illinois’ political class since their release. The census count reported Illinois lost 18,000 in population over the decade, down to 12.81 million, but many politicians, like Gov. Pritzker, say the state actually grew to 13 million.
The IEPI report repeats that claim: “A post-Census review subsequently found that Illinois’ population was likely undercounted by 2%, meaning that the state actually had around 13 million residents in 2020.”
They can’t make that claim. Yes, there was a “post-census review” that found Illinois’ numbers could have been undercounted, as we reported here, but the review was based on a tiny sample and methodologically it was inappropriate to apply it to the census count, Census officials told Wirepoints.
Which is why the official 2020 Census Bureau data remains unchanged from its original findings. It continues to show a 2020 population of 12.81 million, down 18,000 from a population of 12.83 million in 2010.
That decline makes Illinois a national outlier. Illinois was one of only three states to shrink over the decade, joined by only West Virginia and Mississippi.
And Illinois’ population losses have accelerated in the years since then. The latest estimates from the Census Bureau show Illinois lost 230,000 people between 2020 and 2022, more than any other state except New York and California.
IEPI Claim: Illinois added 200,000 tax filers over the decade, growing its tax base.
Reality: Illinois’ growth in tax filers was the nation’s 4th-worst.
The IEPI report claims “Illinois added more than 200,000 taxpayers last decade, an increase of 4%” over the 2010 – 2020 period. Presumably, the institute means that’s a positive signal for Illinois.
IPEI is wrong to imply that an increase in tax filers means Illinois gained more people. The number of tax filers is volatile and can increase/decrease for a host of economic and tax reasons.
The more appropriate proxy for population is the change in tax filers plus their dependents. The IRS tax bracket data we analyzed shows that while the number of tax filers grew 4 percent between 2010 and 2020, the number of individuals counted in the filings (total exemptions) dropped by 7 percent, or nearly 850,000.
That decline is effectively the net loss of Illinoisans due to domestic out-migration over the period, of which we’ve written about here and here.**
In summary, the number of tax filers is not the proper measure. But since IEPI has brought them up, what they should have reported was how poorly Illinois is faring.
Illinois’ growth in tax filers is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country – the nation’s 4th-worst. Only Wyoming, Mississippi and Alaska had smaller growth in tax filers between 2010 and 2020.
In contrast, all of our neighbors experienced a growth in tax filers that was double or more that of Illinois. And states like Texas and Utah saw their tax filers grow more than 25 percent.
Like with most other tax/migration statistics, Illinois is at the bottom of the barrel.
IEPI Claim: The number of high-income taxpayers has grown, making Illinois more wealthy.
Reality: Illinois’ growth in high-income tax filers was nation’s 8th-worst
Similar to the claim above, the IEPI report also says: “Taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes above $100,000 per year grew by more than 50% over the decade, including an increase of 80% among those earning more than $500,000 annually.” Presumably, the Institute means that the state is growing more wealthy over time.
First of all, their statement ignores the reality of “bracket creep.” This phenomenon happens everywhere.
Second, just like with the previous claim, Illinois’ tax filer growth is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country. Illinois suffered the 8th-worst growth among the 50 states between 2010 and 2020, growing just 54%.
Contrast that to neighboring Wisconsin where $100K-plus filers have grown 82 percent. Or Florida, where they’ve grown 100 percent.
The result is the same for incomes above $500K – Illinois suffered the 8th-worst growth.
The result? Illinois is losing ground on “wealthy taxpayers” relative to the rest of the nation. In 2010, Illinois had the 6th-highest share of $500K-plus filers relative to total state tax filers. By 2020, Illinois’ rank had fallen to 10th-highest.
Claim: High-income earners are moving to Illinois, not leaving it.
Reality: Far more high-income earners flee the state than move in.
The IEPI report claims its “data does not support the narrative that high-income earners are fleeing the state. If anything, it shows the opposite to be the case.”
Wirepoints already debunked that fact in “No, it’s not just retirees leaving Illinois. Residents in every age and income group are fleeing.”
The IRS migration data shows that everyone – young and old, rich and poor – left Illinois on a net basis between 2011 and 2020.
Importantly, Illinois is losing its mobile young and wealthy cohorts more than most other groups. The state’s prime-working-years age bracket of 26 to 35 lost nearly 110,000 net tax filers over the decade and the higher-income-class bracket of $100K to $200K lost nearly 85,000 net filers.
The Appendix includes charts with the in- and out-migration of tax filers by age and income between 2011 and 2020. In every year and in every bracket, far more tax filers left the state than moved in.
Claim: Fewer Illinoisans are reliant on government assistance programs.
Reality: More Illinoisans are more dependent on government than ever.
The IEPI report says that the number of filers claiming Earned Income Tax Credit (EIC) decreased 11% over the decade – which led the report’s press release to declare that fewer Illinoisans “are reliant on government assistance programs.”
But that ignores the steady expansion in government dependency that’s occurred in Illinois over the past 20-plus years – particularly with Medicaid and food stamps.
Medicaid dependence today has jumped to 3.8 million enrollees from 1.4 million in 2000. The increasing trend was intact between 2010 and 2015, but enrollment fell during the Trump-economy years.
Most recently, 2021-2023 had a new explosion of enrollment – to record levels. Total enrollment is expected to fall as pandemic-era Medicaid rules end, but so far the reduction has been less than anticipated.
Illinoisans’ enrollment in food stamps has followed a similar pattern. The number of residents dependent on SNAP has grown more than 2.4 times since the turn of the millennium – to where almost 16 percent of Illinois’ entire population is enrolled.
*The IEPI used Illinois Department of Revenue tax data and the Census Bureau’s “Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Survey” to create its report. Wirepoints’ facts are derived from the Census Bureau’s decennial census, national IRS income tax bracket data and IRS state-to-state migration data. Using the IRS data allowed Wirepoints to compare Illinois’ tax statistics to other states.
** The IRS numbers help explain Illinois’ 18,000 population loss over the 2010-2020 period. IRS migration data shows Illinois lost about 900,000 net tax filers and dependents to domestic out-migration. That loss wiped out the state’s growth from net natural increase and international migration, canceling out any net population growth the state could have had during the period.
Appendix
