Gov. J.B. Pritzker continuously denies Illinois is losing population, but sources from U-Haul to the IRS to the US Census Bureau all keep pointing in the same direction – people are leaving Illinois for other states in record numbers. More than 146,000 net Illinoisans left for other states in 2021, according to state-to-state migration data released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau. And now, thanks to that data, we now know where they moved to.
The latest data debunks many out-migration myths that Gov. J.B. Pritzker and others promote. Here are the big three:
Myth #1. Illinois isn’t losing people to other states. U.S. Census data shows Illinois was a net loser of residents to 40 different states between 2020 and 2021, resulting in a net out-migration of 150,000 residents to those 40 states. On the flip side, Illinois was a net winner of residents from just nine states. The net in-migration from those nine states totaled just 4,000 residents.
In all, Illinois netted a loss of 146,000 residents in 2021.
The only two other states that lost more residents to out-migration in 2021 than Illinois did were New York and California. See appendix.
Myth #2. Illinois is only losing retirees to sunny states.
Yes, the Census data shows the favorite destination for Illinoisans wanting a new home continues to be Florida. The Sunshine State gained a net 23,414 residents from Illinois.
But destinations number 2, 3 and 4 aren’t booming southern states or retiree-friendly havens like Arizona or the Carolinas. Instead, Illinoisans are simply moving just over the border. Illinoisans’ number two destination in 2021 was Indiana, which gained a net 19,000 Illinoisans, followed by Wisconsin (net 17,000 Illinoisans gained) and Missouri (net 15,000 Illinoisans gained).
Myth #3. It’s the same with our neighbors.
Illinois’ situation is largely unique when it comes to our neighbors. While Illinois lost a net 146,000 people due to out-migration, most of its neighbors continued to gain residents overall. Missouri experienced the largest net influx of more than 18,000 residents, but Kentucky, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa also received a positive number of net in-migrants as well. Only Michigan suffered net out-migration, but not nearly to the extent of Illinois’ losses.
Conclusion
As we wrote regarding the 2019-2020 IRS migration data released a few months ago, this data shows for yet another year Americans chose better managed, less expensive areas over larger, government-centric, high-cost cities and states. And it provides a glimpse of a demographic future in which states that prioritize an affordable, less intrusive government will dominate those that over-tax and over-regulate the lives and businesses of their residents.
Appendix
Illinois’ total 2021 migration losses were the 3rd-highest decline behind only California (-404,000) and New York (-280,000). The big winners, as always, were Florida with a gain of 205,000 people and Texas with a gain of 144,000.
As a share of population, Illinois’ 1.2 percent decline was the nation’s 4th-worst loss. Alaska (-1.5 percent), New York (-1.4 percent) and Wyoming (-1.4 percent) all lost a greater share of their populations.
